I wanted to devote a post to one of my oldest obsessions: the annual Oscar race. I have been an avid Oscarwatcher for the past seven years and have grown so familiar/tired with the whole thing that I often take it for granted that others must feel the same way. Now clearly, that is not the case and this year's race could use a little introduction since we are now in the lull between the September Film Festivals in Toronto, Telluride, and Venice and the onslaught of prestige film releases around Thanksgiving and Christmas. So, with further ado, a look at some of the films that look like they will be contenders.
The Social Network
"Hey," you might be wondering, "hasn't this movie already come out? Isn't that kind of early for Oscars? And what about this picture screams Oscar anyway? None of its actors have ever sniffed the ceremony on Oscar Sunday, its director has been nominated, sure, but his films are rarely loved by the Academy, and the screenwriter is better known for his TV work." Those are excellent points, contrived rhetorical device. But you know what helps a movie overcome all of those things and lock itself into the pole position for the Oscar race? Reviews, especially reviews like this. The Social Network has received absolutely rapturous reviews and breathless media hype over the past month and clearly seems to have touched the zeitgeist. It always helps a film out when it can cite a review that calls it "the film that defines the generation" or something like that. This film can pull that quote from almost every review published about it. Until early awards start to indicate otherwise, this is your leader for Best Picture right now.
The King's Speech
If The Social Network is a film that seems to defy the conventional definition of Oscarbait, than The King's Speech is the dead opposite of that. A period costume drama (!), set in World War II-era London (!!), starring three Oscar approved actors (!!!), and promoted by the Weinsteins (!!!!), this is a film that was made to win Academy Awards. Honestly, if it were 2000 and not 2010, it might have already sewn up the races for big trophies like Best Actor for the long-respected but only recently nominated Colin Firth and the always enjoyable Geoffrey Rush. But we are looking at the 2010 race, and in all honesty, Oscarbait hasn't done terribly well at the ceremony the last few years. Films like Dreamgirls, Atonement, Revolutionary Road, and Invictus have arrived at the end of the year full of hype and prestige and promptly fizzled with the Academy. Perhaps the voters have learned to be smarter than to fall for a film like this. Hardly likely, but for whatever reason those films failed to deliver much of what The King's Speech is aiming for: Oscar gold. Oh, and it's supposed to be quite good, so do go see it if that strikes your fancy.
127 Hours
127 Hours is Danny Boyle's follow-up to his much-Oscared Slumdog Millionaire and it appears ready to continue his trend of never making two films that seem even remotely similar. Jumping from the slums of Mumbai to the deserts of Utah, Boyle takes up the story of hiker/dude Aron Ralston, who famously amputated his own arm after being pinned by a boulder in a canyon after an accident. The film emerged from the Toronto Film Festival with a decent amount of hype and praise, as well as a strong word of caution that it contains some grisly (reportedly vomit inducing) imagery. So the sometimes squeamish Academy may not like that, but they have to like the reunion tour of basically every crew member from Slumdog as well as the apparently phenomenal James Franco. And, really, Franco has been cruising towards a breakthrough role like this for a few years now, so it all makes sense.
Black Swan
This movie looks like the craziest damn thing, I mean, really go watch the trailer. A psychological thriller about ballet, directed by Darren Aronofsky, and starring Natalie Portman and Mila Kunis that apparently involves Portman having lesbian encounters and literally turning into a black swan. I really want to meet the producer who gave this a greenlight, because he must have cojones the size of a small car. But in any case, this also came in for a strong round of praise at Toronto, which means it gets flung into this discussion, especially since Aronofsky has had success getting his actors nominated before (Mickey Rourke in 08 and Ellen Burstyn in 00). We will see how more mainstream critics and audiences deal with Black Swan's apparent nutiness, but for not it is firmly in the Oscar conversation.
I slobbered over True Grit earlier tonight, and several other Oscar contenders (The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3, Inception, Shutter Island, and Winter's Bone) have been out for months, so discussing their premises/chances here seems a bit superfluous. As we get closer to the end of the year more films will be released and thus the picture will become clearer, and I will update as seems necessary, but as for right now consider yourself informed.
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